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Procurement of materials: Scarce materials can represent a barrier to electrolyser cost and scale-up. Current production of iridium and platinum for PEM electrolysers will only support an estimated 3GW-7.5GW annual manufacturing capacity, compared to an estimated annual manufacturing requirement of around 100GW by 2030. Solutions that avoid the use of such materials are already being implemented by leading alkaline electrolyser manufacturers, however, and technologies exist to significantly reduce the requirements for such materials in PEM electrolysers. Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysers do not need scarce materials in the first place. Efficiency and flexibility in operations: Power supply represents large efficiency losses at low load, limiting system flexibility, from an economic perspective. A modular plant design with multiple stacks and power supply units can address this problem. Compression could also represent a bottleneck for flexibility, since it might not be able to change its production rate as quickly as the stack. One alternative to deal with this is an integrated plant design with enough capacity to deal with variability of production through optimised and integrated electricity and hydrogen storage. Green hydrogen production can provide significant flexibility for the power system, if the value of such services is recognised and remunerated adequately. Where hydrogen will play a key role in terms of flexibility, as it does not have any significant alternative sources to compete with, will be in the seasonal storage of renewables. Although this comes at significant efficiency losses, it is a necessary cornerstone for achieving 100% renewable generation in power systems with heavy reliance on variable resources, such as solar and wind. Industrial applications: Electrolysis system design and operation can be optimised for specific applications. These can range from: large industry users requiring a stable supply and with low logistics costs; large scale, off-grid facilities with access to low-cost renewables, but that incur in significant costs to deliver hydrogen to the end-user; and decentralised production that requires small modules for flexibility, which compensate for higher investment per unit of electrolyser capacity with reduced (or nearzero onsite) logistic costs. Learning rates: Several studies show that potential learning rates for fuel cells and electrolysers are similar to solar PV and can reach values between 16% and 21%. This is significantly lower than the 36% learning rates experienced over the last 10 years for PV (IRENA, 2020a). With such learning rates and a deployment pathway in line with a 1.5°C climate target, a reduction in the cost of electrolysers of over 40% may be achievable by 2030. Figure ES1 shows how up to 85% of green hydrogen production costs can be reduced in the long term by a combination of cheaper electricity and electrolyser capex investment, in addition to increased efficiency and optimised operation of the electrolyser. SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS TO MEET THE 1.5°C CLIMATE GOAL 9PDF Image | GREEN HYDROGEN SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS
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