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Figure 29. 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Potential cost decrease for electrolysers based on a learning rate and costs achieved by deployment in IRENA scenarios by 2030 and 2050. 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS TO MEET THE 1.5°C CLIMATE GOAL Cost curve electrolysers IRENA - Planned Energy Scenario 2030 IRENA - Transforming Energy Scenario - 2030 1 TW of installed capacity by 2050 5 TW of installed capacity by 2050 Notes: 1 TW of installed capacity by 2050 is about 1.2 TW of cumulative capacity due to lifetime and replacement. Similarly, 5 TW by 2050 is equivalent to 5.48 TW of cumulative capacity deployed. Based on IRENA analysis. In the Planned Energy Scenario from IRENA, electrolysers could achieve about 40% cost reduction by 2030 with 100GW of capacity deployed. In the case of the Transforming Energy Scenario that requires a more aggressive deployment of 270GW of electrolysers by 2030, an almost 55% cost reduction is achieved. In the long term, looking at a closetozero emissions system,where1700GWofelectrolysisisdeployed by 2050, the cost reduction can be over 70%. This is not dramatically different from the Hydrogen Council estimate of a cost reduction of 60% by 2030 through a combination of manufacturing scale, learning rate, technological improvements and increase in the module size from 2MW to 90 MW (Hydrogen Council, 2020). Similar to the economies of scale for manufacturing, where components reduce their cost unevenly with scale, the potential for learning is also different by component. A recent report (Böhm, Goers and Zauner, 2019) looked into the learning rate by component for alkaline, PEM and solid oxide electrolysers (see Table 10). For this, components are assigned one of three learning rates: 5% for technologyindependent standard parts (e.g. flanges); 8% for peripheral parts that are technology specific (e.g. catalysts); and 18% for the core components of the electrolyser. 79 Electrolyser cost (USD/kWel)PDF Image | GREEN HYDROGEN SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS
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