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6. THE ROAD TO SCALING UP GREEN HYDROGEN: A MILESTONE- DRIVEN APPROACH GREEN HYDROGEN COST REDUCTION Progress towards a lower cost is not a time bound trajectory. The cost-reduction pathway will be defined by how quickly specific key milestones are achieved. This depends on governments setting time bound targets and measures to support green hydrogen demand, which in turn will promote scale up (explicitly or implicitly) and increased competition in electrolyser manufacturing and deployment. No single cost reduction strategy is recommended to be pursued, as the four strategies presented in this report should be considered in parallel. A combination of government support for research programmes in parallel with the establishment of policies and targets, combined with private sector efforts towards standardisation and optimised designs will lead to lower electrolyser costs and ultimately cheaper green hydrogen. A 40% cost decline could be achievable in the short term, with a final 80% cost reduction in the long term when all the targets are achieved. Investment cost is only one component of the total green hydrogen cost. To achieve cost competitiveness with fossil-based hydrogen, low electricity cost, favourable regulation, higher efficiency and a longer lifetime will be needed. 86 The strategies for cost reduction presented in this report are highly interrelated and pursuing only one might not even be possible. Furthermore, this is not a sudden process involving abrupt changes. Instead, it is gradual, with multiple reinforcing loops. Larger manufacturing capacities are likely to be associated with the deployment of larger modules and will also favour more deployment, since production cannot be too far ahead of market demand. Therefore, to reach multi-GW production capacities, a multi-GW market also has to exist. There is a positive feedback, similar to any other KEY POINTSPDF Image | GREEN HYDROGEN SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS
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