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part of the energy system, where research leads to improvement in performance (durability, efficiency and cost), which makes the technology more competitive, triggering deployment (learning-by- doing), which enables lower cost, attractive private capital for R&D and further improvement. In exploiting these synergies, different stages of development can be identified, where each strategy reinforces changes taking place in other parts of the value chain and all act in the same direction to drive the cost down. Figure 33 splits the period from where we are today to a future with a low cost of investment in electrolysers into three stages. Each is followed by a description of what should happen in every stage and every strategy to achieve long-term, low-cost hydrogen. Progressing from one stage to the next is not a timebound activity. Instead, how fast the end cost in Stage 3 is achieved will depend on how fast the milestones are reached. This will depend on policy support, capital invested and deployment. SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS TO MEET THE 1.5°C CLIMATE GOAL Figure 33. Milestones for four cost reduction strategies across three stages of deployment for electrolysers. STAGE 1 STRATEGY STAGE 2 STAGE 3 Manufacturing scale Few players (oligopoly) Numbering up 1-10 MW/yr plants Competitive 1-100 MW/yr plants Diversified 0.1-5 GW/yr plants >5 GW/yr plants >10 MW/yr plants Module size 1-10 MW modules 10-100 MW modules >100 MW modules 1-10 MW modules 10-100 MW modules Optimised larger module Learning-by-doing Balance of plant in-house Specialised suppliers for BoP Mass manufacturing (AEM) Custom designs Standard design by application Demonstration projects Current density Pt and Co free (alk) Private research Research Membrane thickness Pt and Ir reduction Bipolar plates (PEM) AEM membranes Demonstration Durability/ efficiency SOEC lifetime Based on IRENA analysis. Alkaline and PEM AEM and solid oxide 87PDF Image | GREEN HYDROGEN SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS
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