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SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS TO MEET THE 1.5°C CLIMATE GOAL 3.4 INCREASING MODULE SIZE The largest cost share is the balance of plant and not the stack itself (see Chapter 2, Section 6). Increasing the module size can lead to some benefits in economies of scale, with these greater for the balance of plant. The stack has limited economies of scale since it cannot be greatly increased in size, but will most likely be increased in number. This is due to problems that include, for example, leakage, limitations in the manufacturing of large-scale components, mechanical instability issues for large-scale components, the maximum area of the cell, and others. The balance of plant, however, can have strong economies of scale. For instance, a compressor that is ten times larger (e.g. going from 1 MW to 10 MW) is not ten times more expensive, but only about four times. This would reduce the cost that such a compressor has on the overall cost, since the stack would be 9-10 times more expensive for the same capacity increase. This leads to the stack having a larger contribution to the total cost, as module size increases (see Figure 25). Figure 25. 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0% Cost breakdown by major component for alkaline electrolysers based on current costs. 1 MW 10 MW 100 MW 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Based on IRENA analysis, based on Böhm et al., 2020. Some studies have looked into the potential cost decrease for increasing the module size and reaping these economies of scale (Saba et al., 2018; Böhm et al., 2020; Proost, 2020)a literature review was conducted to evaluate the published data on investment costs and learning rates for PEM and alkaline electrolyzers from the 1990s until 2017 and the years beyond. The collected data are adjusted for inflation and specified in €2017 per kW-output using the higher heating value (HHV. Böhm et al. estimates the cost exponent to be 0.60.75 for the balance of plant (Böhm et al., 2020). This would lead to a cost increase of 4-5.6 times when increasing the capacity by ten times. Saba et al. use data from NEL (one of the main electrolyser manufacturing companies) and also include the cost penalty for increasing the operating pressure (Saba et al., 2018). Proost identifies 3-4 MW module size as a tipping point to go from a single stack to a multi-stack and achieve a significant change in the cost increase for every additional MW of capacity (Proost, 2020). This is highly dependent on stack design, however, and will vary from one manufacturer to another. Figure 26 shows a comparison between the estimates of these studies plus the use of the cost shares in Section 3.6 and Rest of balance of plant Gas conditioning Power electronics Cell stack Investment cost (USD/kWel) 71 Cost breakdown by component Investment cost (USD/kWel)PDF Image | GREEN HYDROGEN SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS
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