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GREEN HYDROGEN COST REDUCTION has been deployed for chlor-alkali. Similarly, the learning rate for electrolysis can build upon existing studies that look at fuel cells, since these are the same fundamental process, but in the reverse direction23 . Fuel cells and electrolysers can benefit from developments in batteries (IEA, 2020), since they also use the same principle and share the same component families (anodes, cathodes, membranes and assemblies). This would allow electrolysers to indirectly benefit from battery electric vehicle (BEV) and fuel cell deployment across the various transport modes and even on large-scale stationary use. These cumulative cost reductions can be captured in a learning rate. Table 9 shows a survey of the studies that have estimated learning rates for electrolysers and fuel cells, with data going back over 60 years in some cases. Most of the studies find a learning rate of 16%-21%, with several having the mid estimate at 18%. One of the studies (Wei, Sarah Josephine Smith and Sohn, 2017), which focuses on smallscale fuel cell applications in California, does not, however, demonstrate any learning throughout the period analysed (2007-2015). Electrolysers have similar learning rates to solar PV and could experience similar cost decreases with large-scale deployment. This learning opportunity might decrease over time as deployment takes place Reasons for the lack of learning in that study included the lack of a competitive market, lack of favourable market conditions and lack of government targets for technology adoption. This shows the importance of public support for both deployment and learning. Considering the mid-estimate of 18% and the 20GW of existing capacity, the potential cost decrease from deployment is shown in Figure 29. Table 9. Learning rate estimates for electrolysers and fuel cells. Learning rate (%) Notes Reference 9 Electrolysis Alkaline for 2020-2030 (Hydrogen Council, 2020) 13 Electrolysis PEM for 2020-2030 (Hydrogen Council, 2020) 18 +/- 6 Electrolysis 1956-2014 data (alkaline) (Schmidt et al., 2017) 18 +/- 13 Electrolysis 1972-2004 data (Schoots et al., 2008) 8 Electrolysis Floor cost of USD 350/kW (alkaline) (Gül et al., 2009) 18 +/- 2 PEM fuel cell 1989-2012 data (Schmidt et al., 2017) 18 PEM fuel cell Initial capacity of 1.1 GW (McDowall, 2012) 15 PEM fuel cell Based on proprietary data (McKinsey, 2010) 21 +/- 3 PEM fuel cell 1996-2006 data (Schoots, Kramer and van der Zwaan, 2010) 15 PEM fuel cell Floor cost of USD 50/kW (Gül et al., 2009) 0% Solid oxide fuel cell California self-generation incentive programme (Wei, Sarah Josephine Smith and Sohn, 2017) 16 +/- 3 μCHP Based on EneFarm, Korean demonstration and PEMFC manufacturer (Staffell and Green, 2013) 18 +/- 2 μCHP Based on EneFarm (Wei, Sarah J. Smith and Sohn, 2017) Source: See “Reference” column. 78 23 PEM and solid oxide is available for both electrolysers and fuel cells.PDF Image | GREEN HYDROGEN SCALING UP ELECTROLYSERS
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